中美贸易收支与人民币汇率关系

本文基于1994~2005年的年度数据,通过协整分析和Granger因果检验发现,人民币汇率升值对中美贸易收支从长期看有一定影响,但不是中美贸易收支失衡的主要原因,美国经济发展状况以及国内政策才是导致中美贸易收支顺差的主要原因。在当前经济形势下,中美贸易顺差依然是我国经济发展的重要引擎之一。所以,我们一方面要警惕美国经济下滑导致我国的出口下降,另一方面可以利用人民币当前小幅上涨的契机,调整我国经济结构,加快产业升级的步伐。

Sino-US Trade Balance and RMB Exchange Rate

Based on annual data from 1994 to 2005,the paper showed that RMB exchange rate appreciation have influence on China-US trade balance in the long run to a certain extend but not the main reason for China-US trade imbalances through cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.Development of U.S.economy and domestic policy in U.S.can be said to the main reason for China-US trade surplus.In the current economic situation,China-US trade surplus is still one of the important engines of economic development.So we have to guard against U.S.economic downturn leading to the decline in our exports.On the other hand,we can adjust our economic structure and accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading using the opportunity of RMB exchange rate appreciation.