异质有限理性预期与住房价格关联性研究

为使住房价格调控政策具有很强的针对性,必须明了住房价格决定及其波动的内在机制。本文基于异质有限理性预期,将更为广泛的有限理性预期模式纳入到住房价格决定模型之中,利用我国35个大中城市2002—2010年的动态面板数据进行了实证检验,并综合比较了各种有限理性预期模式与住房价格决定及其波动之间的关系。研究发现:房价并没有与经济基本面相偏离,人均可支配收入、利率和房价预期都会决定房价,但收入水平和利率的决定作用有限,预期才是决定房价及其波动的最主要影响因素。房价的异质预期模式使得房价具有不同的决定机制和波动性,这种不同在收入、利率和预期价格以及历史价格信息上都有所体现,并且适应性预期和一般有限理性预期能使住房市场实现自发的稳定。

Study on the Relationship between Heterogeneous Boundedly Rational Expectations with Housing Price

In order to make the housing price control policies have very strong pertinence,it’s necessary to understand the internal mechanism of urban housing price changing and periodic volatility.Based on the heterogeneous boundedly rational expectation,this paper takes into the the boundedly rational expectation pattern that is much more extensive into the housing price decision model,we take an empirical test by using the dynamic panel data of 35 major cities in China from 2002 through 2010,and also a comprehensive comparison of the relationship between the various boundedly rational expectations models with the decision and the volatility of housing prices.This paper finds that: the housing price is not deviated with economic fundamental,and is affected with average per capita disposable income,interest rate and housing price expectation,however,the decision action of income level and interest rate are limited,and housing price expectation is testified to have the greatest influence on housing price decision and volatility.The heterogeneous expectation model of housing prices has allowed housing prices to a different decision mechanism and volatility,the differences are embodied in income,interest rate and expected price and historical price information,and the adaptive expectation and generally boundedly rational expectation can be expected to spontaneously realize the housing market stable.