危机前的美国负债型经济增长模式

本轮金融危机爆发前,美国债务增加与经济增长并存。经济增长的重要动力是资产价格泡沫下的过度信贷消费,巨大的消费使得公、私储蓄率系统性下降,在投资率上升的情况下造成其经常项目赤字,而美元本位给了美国用资本项目顺差来平衡经常项目赤字的便利,华尔街的金融衍生债券成为填平美国经常项目赤字的重要手段。当双赤字状态无法延续时,美国以危机形式和货币贬值形式抖落其负债包袱。牙买加体系下的＂国际经济双循环＂结构注定危机的发展是发散而非收敛的。这种充分利用美元本位机制,靠信贷促进消费、靠消费带动经济增长的消费驱动型经济增长模式走到了极端,到了不可持续的程度,应尽快对这种经济增长模式和国际收支格局进行调整。

American Mode of in Debt Economic Development Before Crisis

Debt increasing and economic development coexisted in the U.S.before financial crisis,with its debt increasing while economy growing continuously.Its important impetus of economic growth was over-consumption with credit,immense consumption decreasing both public and private savings systematically,bringing about current account deficit under the circumstance of high rate of investment.Dollar standard facilitates the U.S.balancing current account deficit with capital account surplus,with Wall Street＇s financial derivative bonds as the major means to deal with current account deficit.When twin deficits could not sustain,the U.S.debased its liabilities through crisis and currency devaluation.The double circulation of international economy under Jamaica system destined the non-convergence of the crisis.The consumption-driving economic development mode has come to its end and the time to adjust is due.