伊朗局势前景走向及其影响分析

2011年末以来,伊朗紧张局势不断升级,其背后体现的是美欧等西方国家对中东地区的利益追求和战略控制。未来伊朗局势发展有多种可能,不确定性较大。如果伊朗局势进一步恶化,将导致国际油价面临剧烈波动,拖累世界经济复苏,进而对我国石油供应和经济发展带来较大冲击,我国石油企业亦将受到重大影响,须及早谋划,做好应对准备。建议:在国家层面上,密切跟踪伊朗局势变化,加强危机预警和应对能力;在企业层面上,灵活调整应对策略,努力保证国内油气平稳供应。

Outlook in Iran and its effect

Tension with Iran has been escalating since the end of 2011.Behind the tension is westernized countries’ pursuit of national interest in and strategic control of the Middle East.There are a number of possible developments in Iran with considerable uncertainty.Worsened tension would trigger sharp increase in international oil prices,which would hurt world economic recovery and also have a dramatic negative impact on China’s oil supply and economic development.Chinese oil enterprises would be adversely affected as well.So they should plan and be prepared.They are advised to:track changes in the Iranian situation at the state level,improve the capability for early warning of impending crisis and for coping with it;and adopt flexible alternative measures at the enterprise level to ensure steady supply of domestic oil & gas.