国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业出口的影响——来自企业层面的微观证据

当前,以贸易保护主义为主要特征的"逆全球化"思潮涌现,国外的贸易保护措施对中国制造业的出口增长构成严重的威胁.那么,这些贸易保护措施对中国制造业的出口到底产生了怎样的影响?其内在机制是什么?文章采用2009?2011年GTA数据库与中国海关统计数据库的合并数据,从企业这一微观层面定量识别国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业出口的实际影响.研究发现:(1)国外贸易保护措施的实施显著地降低了受影响企业的出口规模,贸易保护措施的数量每增加1次,受影响企业的出口将下降17%左右;贸易保护强度每增加1个单位,受影响企业的出口将下降52%左右.(2)从影响机制看,国外贸易保护措施对制造业出口的抑制效应是通过降低出口的数量和质量来实现的.(3)贸易融资对制造业出口的边际影响最大,而贸易救济措施是对制造业出口整体影响最大的贸易保护措施.(4)国外贸易保护措施对外资企业、同质产品以及中间品出口的抑制作用更明显.文章的研究结论既为理解贸易保护主义的危害提供了经验证据,也为中国在持续推动对外开放背景下如何应对贸易保护壁垒提供了决策依据.

The Impact of Foreign Trade Protection Measures on Chinese Manufacturing Export: Micro-evidence at Firm Level

Influenced by the international financial crisis,the trend of trade protectionism has risen,and as the world's largest manufacturing exporter,China is the first to bear the brunt of trade protectionism. As a report of GTA in 2012 pointed out that China is the country with the largest number of trade protection meas-ures and the variety of trade protection measures that affect China's foreign trade has also been constantly re-furbished. Increasingly frequent and multitudinous foreign trade protection measures pose a serious threat to the growth of China's manufacturing export. So,what is the actual impact of foreign trade protection meas-ures on China's manufacturing export? How is the influence mechanism? Are there any differences in the im-pact of different types of foreign trade protection measures? Research on these issues will help us to deepen our understanding of the harm of trade protectionism and also provide enlightenment for China's search for ways to circumvent trade protection barriers. Based on the combined data of GTA database and China Cus-toms Statistics Database from 2009 to 2011,this paper quantitatively evaluates the true impact of foreign trade protection measures on China's manufacturing export. Then,it divides the scale of trade into quantity margin, quality margin and price margin,and explores the impact mechanism of foreign trade protection measures on China's manufacturing export. Next,it uses bilateral t-test and cluster analysis to scientifically identify which types of foreign trade protection measures have the greatest impact on Chinese manufacturing export. Finally, it examines the differentiated impact of foreign trade protection measures on China's manufacturing export from the perspectives of enterprise ownership,product heterogeneity and product use. The main conclusions are as follows:firstly,the implementation of foreign trade protection measures significantly reduces the export scale of affected manufacturing firms. Each additional increase in the number of trade protection measuresleads to a reduction in the export of affected firms by about 17%,and an increase in the intensity of trade protectionmeasures by 1% results in a reduction in the export of affected firms by about 52%. Secondly,the inhibitoryeffect of foreign trade protection measures on manufacturing export is realized by reducing the quantityand quality of export. Thirdly,trade financing has the most significant marginal impact on manufacturingexport,while trade remedies are the most protective trade protection measure for manufacturing export.Lastly,trade protectionism is more obvious for foreign-funded enterprises,single-product enterprises,homogeneousproducts and intermediate goods exports. In short,this paper expands the existing research in three aspects:firstly,it uses firm level data to quantitatively identify the impact of trade protection measures onChina's manufacturing export,and the conclusion is more reliable;secondly,the use of trade protection intensityto characterize the extent to which enterprises are affected by trade protection measures effectively overcomesthe problem that the negative impact of trade protection measures on export is underestimated. Thirdly,it employs the method of bilateral t-test and cluster analysis to identify which foreign trade protection measureshave the greatest impact on Chinese manufacturing export,and further examines the differentiated effectof foreign trade protection walls on China's manufacturing export and its impact mechanism.