| Abstract: | It is unnecessary to encourage operational research (OR) workers to become involved in problems of major world impact; this is why OR was born in wartime. Then it could be assumed that an entity existed (the decision maker) with sufficient problem awareness, clear objectives and adequate intelligence to decide between presented options. Not until peacetime was it recognized that today's problems affect our future rather than our present. It became necessary to invent futures studies, and from that point there can be no all-wise decision maker. Consequently there are gaps in futures methodology. Problems can be identified and their impact analysed, but there is no direct road towards implementation. There are many decision makers but no common approach or goal. Opinion pools have not been an adequate substitute for informed decision making. New methodology is needed. This article considers the difficulties and makes suggestions for changes in approach. |
