Forecasting leisure and tourism - scenario projections for 2000–2010

This article considers likely future trends in leisure time and tourism. The economic climate over the next 20 years is usually predicted to produce an increase in tourism. However, there are clearly discernible limits to the growth of tourist demand in the industrialized countries, due to changing economic conditions, modified consumer behaviour and new technologies. Increasing leisure time will be allocated to other uses besides tourism. The composition of the tourist population will alter, with increasing proportions of, eg senior citizens. There will be greater emphasis on individual/self-determined holidays, and on educational and recreational pursuits. Increasing environmental awareness will effect planning policies and tourist demand. An interdisciplinary, long-term approach to tourism planning is recommended.