| 自适应单指数平滑法在需求预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡军,赵东风,丁洪伟.自适应单指数平滑法在需求预测中的应用[J].物流科技,2007,30(5):142-146. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡军 赵东风 丁洪伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 昆明大学,云南,昆明,650118
2. 云南大学,云南,昆明,650000 |
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| 摘 要： | 可靠、准确的需求预测是现代供应链正常运转的前提;单指数平滑法作为重要预测方法得到广泛应用。本文针对单指数平滑法中存在的不足,在分析基础上提出改进算法,并就算法思想、计算方法和预测结果进行了比较分析;改进算法在预测精度、非平稳时间序列适应性等方面效果有明显提高,对企业需求预测具有较好的指导意义和参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 供应链管理 需求预测 指数平滑法 预测精度 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-3100（2007）05-0142-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-10-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年10月26 |
Application of Adaptive Single-exponent Smoothness Method in the Requirement Forecast |
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| HU Jun,ZHAO Dong-feng,DING Hong-wei.Application of Adaptive Single-exponent Smoothness Method in the Requirement Forecast[J].Logistics Management,2007,30(5):142-146. |
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| Authors: | HU Jun ZHAO Dong-feng DING Hong-wei |
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| Institution: | 1. Kunming University, Kunming 650118, China; 2. Yunnan University, Kunming 650000, China |
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| Abstract: | It is premise which modern supply chain works normally that reliable and accurate requirement forecast.The single-exponent smoothness model is extensively applied as important forecast method.In the article,we put forward improved algorithm that based on analysis and contrapose shortage about the single-exponent smoothness method and compare algorithmic thinking,calculative method and forecast result.The forecast effect which is improved algorithm about forecast precision,unstable time sequence is prominent advance.It is better directionless acceptation and reference value for requirement forecast of enterprise. |
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| Keywords: | supply chain management requirement forecast exponent smoothness method forecast precision |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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