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Sovereign Risk Contagion in East Asia: A Mixture of Time-Varying Copulas Approach
Authors:Yongwoong Lee  KiHoon Hong
Affiliation:1. Department of International Finance, College of Economics and Business, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea;2. Department of Business Administration, College of Business Administration, Hongik University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Abstract:This study analyzes sovereign risk contagion between four East Asian economies (China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea) and its structural changes through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European Debt Crisis (EDC) by applying the mixture of time-varying copulas to those economies’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads.

This article first finds a strong contagion from the US and PIIGS economies to the East Asian sovereign CDS markets and intraregional contagion within the East Asian markets. Second, the impact of contagion is different according to whether it is measured by the linear (Gaussian) or the upper tail dependence. Third, Japan plays an important role in increasing the linear dependence whereas China and Korea are crucial in terms of the upper tail dependence. Lastly, the GFC has structurally increased the linear dependence but not the upper tail dependence between the East Asian sovereign CDS markets.

Keywords:East Asian economies  global financial crisis  mixture of time-varying copulas  sovereign risk contagion  tail dependence
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