税收增长与经济增长相关性的实证研究

近年来,我国税收出现了两位数的增长,这种超常增长使人们开始关注税收是否能超速于经济增长,以及税收超速增长是否会影响到经济的增长等问题。文章从实证出发,先从税收和经济总量上对这一问题进行了解答,进而对影响税收增长和经济增长的各自因素进行回归分析、做结构分解、进行系统的分析,以克服总量分析的不足,从而得出量化的、更有力的分析结论。

A Study on Relation between Tax Increase and Economic Growth

In recent years, the tax revenue of China has been growing at a two-digit speed, which made us think whether tax revenue can surpass economic growth and whether it could affect economic growth. In order to overcome the shortcoming in total analysis, the paper makes a regression analysis on it, has a structural decomposition on the respective factors of tax and economic growth and comes to a new conclusion.