财务分析师盈余预测精确度决定因素的实证分析

文章以2004~2005年的上市公司数据为样本,分析了我国财务分析师在预测上市公司未来盈余时影响其预测精确度的主要因素。研究发现,预测机构数量的增加、盈余可预测性以及信息披露质量的提高,将伴随着高的盈余预测精确度,而盈余波动程度越大、公司规模越大,预测的精确度则越低。同时,可预测性、盈余管理、盈余波动以及公司扩张速度对分析师的悲观预测有显著的影响,而可预测性、盈余管理以及公司规模则显著影响分析师对盈余的乐观估计。

An Empirical Study about the Determinants of the Precision of Analysts' Earnings Forecast

Based on the sample of listed companies in SHSE from 2004 to 2005,this paper studies the determinants of the precision of analysts' earning forecast.The conclusion is that precision of analysts' earnings forecast is enhanced by increasing in the numbers of analysts and by improving on earnings predictability and information disclosure.But the precision is reduced by more drastic variance of earnings and larger size of firm.At the same time,earnings predictability,earning management,variance of earnings and rapid development of firm have significant influence on pessimistic earnings forecast,while earnings predictability,earning management and scale of firm can impact significantly on optimistic earnings forecasts.