PROJECTING CANADIAN DAIRY FARM STRUCTURE USING MARKOV PROCESSES

This paper reports on an application of the Markov chain process to an analysis of the size structure of the primary Canadian dairy industry. On the basis of observed changes in the size distribution of "census" farms with milk cows from 1961 to 1966, projections were made of the numbers of these farms by herd size for the years 1971 and 1981. It is projected that by the year 1981 there will be 109,200 farms with milk cows in Canada, a 51 per cent decline from the numbers in 1966. All of the decrease will occur in the smaller size herds of less than 33 cows. Farms with herd sizes larger than this are expected to increase in numbers. Projections were made separately for Ontario and Quebec.