ENDING RESTRICTIONS TO MIGRATION FROM THE NEW EU MEMBER COUNTRIES: SECTORAL TRADE AND REAL WAGE EFFECTS |
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| Authors: | HELENA MARQUES HUGH METCALF |
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| Institution: | Marques:;Lecturer in Economics, Department of Economics, Sir Richard Morris Building, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UK. Phone +44 191 2228648, Fax +44 191 2226548, E-mail Metcalf:;Lecturer in Economics, Economics Unit, Business School, University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK. E-mail |
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| Abstract: | Most EU-15 countries have kept restrictions to migration from the new member countries but committed to removing them within seven years from the 2004 enlargement. This article predicts the sectoral trade and real wage impact on high-income, mid-income, and low-income members of removing those restrictions, given two extreme scenarios: either all migrants are skilled or all are unskilled. The main effect of skilled migration is the relocation of high-scale economy, skill-intensive industries from mid-income into high-income countries. The main effect of unskilled migration is the relocation of low-scale economy, low skill-intensive industries from low-income into mid-income countries. Both high-income and low-income members would be better off with skilled migration, but those with mid-income would benefit from unskilled migration. ( JEL F1, F15, F22, J31, L6) |
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