未来50年东北地区旱涝演变规律预估

基于东北地区89个气象站点观测数据及IPCC AR4中ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式降尺度的0.5°×0.5°分辨率的月平均降水格点场资料,结合统计学相关系数以及干旱评价指数Z指数,评估了气候模式对该地区降水变化的模拟能力,并对其未来50年东北地区旱涝时空演变规律进行了预估。结果表明:(1)东北区及其各省实测年降水与模拟值时空上拟合度较差,修正后的数据模拟能力有较大提高;(2)未来50年全区及东三省降水呈上升趋势,内蒙古东部地区则呈减少趋势,且具有2015~2034年降水持续减少,2035后干湿交替发生特征;(3)未来东北地区旱涝依然呈广发、频发态势,且洪涝更为突出,旱涝多发区主要集中在三江平原、松嫩平原以及辽河平原等地。

Pre-estimation of evolution law of drought and water logging in Northeast China over next 50 years

Based on the observed data from 89 meteorological stations in the Northeast China and the average monthly gridded precipitation data with the resolution of 0.5°×0.5°downscaled from the mode of ECHAM5/MPI-OM in IPCC AR4， the ability of the climate model to simulate the precipitation change within the region is pre-estimated in combination with the relevant statistical coefficients and the Z index for drought assessment， and then the evolution law of drought and water logging therein over the next 50 years is pre-estimated as well. The result shows that（1）the spatial-temporal fitting between the observed annual precipitation and its simulated value of the Northeast China and all the provinces in the region is poorer， nevertheless， the data simulation ability is largely enhanced after the correction concerned；（2）the precipitation in the Northeast China and all the provinces in the region has a trend of rising， however， a reducing trend is there in the east area of the Inner Mongolia with the feature of continuous reduction of precipitation from 2015 to 2034 and the alternated occurences of both drought and water logging after 2035；（3）in the future， the region still has a tendency of wide and frequent occurrence of drought and water logging， especially， flood and water logging are to be quite serious， while flood and water logging are mostly concentrated within the areas of Sanjiang Plains，Songnen Plains，Liaohe River Plain， etc.