Did the Retreat of UK Trade Unionism Accelerate during the 1990–1993 Recession?

It is widely believed that recessions are periods of accelerated structural change, with major reorganizations or adjustments being made under intense pressure. These changes are made to ensure the survival of firms, exploit opportunities created by difficulties facing other firms, or take advantage of temporary falls in the opportunity cost of initiating and carrying out changes. This line of argument suggests that we should expect to see firms making major changes in their investments in human capital, and in their industrial relations practices. Our results are only partially consistent with this view. What seems to be clear from the data generated by our surveys is that firms are not reluctant to make changes in their bargaining strategies and industrial relations systems. This should be no surprise. Unlike investments in plant and equipment, these changes do not require much cash, and the opportunity cost of making them is much lower in recessions than in booms. However, the observed changes in union recognition have not occurred primarily in firms that were severely affected by the recession. Increases in pay decentralization and reorganization of work-force arrangements were no more likely to be initiated by distressed firms than by firms only moderately affected by the recession. It follows, then, that the retreat of UK unionism observed during the 1990–3 recession was, in the main, a continuation of existing secular trends. The mild acceleration in the pace of change revealed by our survey may be cyclical, but the trend is unlikely to be reversed as recovery gathers pace.