人口老龄化、养老金与国际资本流动： 影响机制与实证研究*

本文详细梳理了人口老龄化对国际资本流动的影响机制，并利用1993-2012年98个国家或地区的面板数据实证分析其相关关系，同时验证了以养老金为中介变量的影响机制。研究发现：人口老龄化主要通过资本-劳动比率和经常账户余额影响国际资本流动；不管是中高收入和中低收入国家，人口老龄化程度越高，资本越倾向流出；随着实行现收现付（PAYG）养老制度国家的深入改革，作为资金池的养老金规模逐渐扩大，其对外投资活动也越活跃。

POPULATION AGING,PENSION FUNDS AND INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS:MECHANISM AND EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

In this paper, we reviewed the impact mechanism of population aging on international capital flowsBased on panel data of 1993-2012 in 98 countries or regions to test this relation, we also verified the impact mechanism of pension funds as mediator. The result showed that capital labor ratio and current account balances were the main paths of population aging on international capital flows. The higher the degree of population aging, the capital would more incline to outflow, no matter the middle and high income countries or low income countries. With the reform of Pay As You Go (PAYG) pension funds system, as the capital pool of pension funds, the scale would gradually expand, and it would induce international capital outflow.