人口结构变化对中国资产价格的影响*——理论分析与实证检验

本文引入中国特有的“统账结合”混合社会养老保险制度，构建了一个带有遗赠动机的理性预期代际交叠（OLG）模型，证明了劳动人口占比与资产价格存在正相关关系。在此基础上，本文以股票和商品房两类资产为例，检验了人口结构变化与中国资产价格之间的关系。结果显示，人口结构的变化只对房地产市场价格的变动有显著影响，而这一现象是由中国股票市场、房地产市场、居民金融资产结构等多方面的现实特点造成的。根据本文的研究结果，旨在改善人口老龄化问题的多种政策将有助于促进中国房地产市场的平稳发展。

THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS ON CHINA’S ASSET PRICE---Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test

Introducing “social pooling and individual account combination”, this paper builds a rational expectation OLG model with bequest motive and Chinas mixed pension system，and proves that the rate of labor force and total population is positively related to asset prices. On this basis, this paper takes two types of assets-stocks and commodity houses as examples to analyze the influence of China s demographic structure on asset prices. This paper finds that China s demographic structure only has a significant impact on housing prices, but has no significant impact on stock prices. This results come from the realistic characteristics of Chinas stock market, the real estate market, the structure of residents financial assets and so on. According to the results of this paper, appropriate demographic structure policies will help to promote the steady development of the real estate market.