贸易政策不确定性与中国产品出口的数量、质量效应——基于自由贸易协定的政策背景

基于中国缔结自由贸易协定的政策背景,试图从贸易政策不确定性的新视角来解释中国的出口扩张以及出口升级。通过将贸易政策不确定性引入到质量异质性模型,推理出贸易政策不确定性对出口扩张及出口升级的关系等式,运用2002—2014年高度精细化的微观企业数据进行实证检验。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性下降有利于促进出口扩张和出口升级,OFDI是发挥贸易政策不确定性效应的重要作用机制。自由贸易战略是我国应对当前“逆全球化”国际局势的重要对策,贸易政策不确定性为我国维持出口扩张和实现出口升级提供了新思路。

Quantity and Quality Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty on China’s Product Export:Based on Free Trade Agreement Background

Under the background of free trade agreement,we analyze how trade policy uncertainty(TPU)affects China’s export expansion and export upgrading.We introduce trade policy uncertainty into quality heterogeneous model and deduce the related hypotheses.In order to explore TPU’s effects,we apply micro Chinese firm level data from 2002 to 2014.We find that the reduction of TPU can promote export expansion and export upgrading,mainly through OFDI channel.FTA is Chinese government’s solution to the reverse globalization wave.TPU is a new perspective to explain export expansion and export upgrading.