Income shifting and U.S. international trade in goods statistics |
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Institution: | 1. Oregon State University, United States;2. Purdue University, United States;1. School of Business, University of Connecticut, 2100 Hillside Rd., Unit 1041A, Storrs, CT 06269, United States;2. College of Business, Colorado State University, 501 W. Laurel St., Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States;1. Lehigh University, USA;2. Santa Clara University, USA;3. Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), South Korea;4. California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, USA;1. Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China;2. Institute of Accounting and Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, China;3. Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, China;4. SILC Business School, Shanghai University, China;1. University of Colorado Denver, 1475 Lawrence Street, Denver, CO 80202, USA;2. Bentley University, 175 Forest Street, Waltham, MA 02452, USA;3. Northeastern University, 404 Hayden Hall, 360 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA;1. Western Michigan University, United States;2. George Mason University, United States;3. Florida Atlantic University, United States |
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Abstract: | Intrafirm trade represents greater than one-third of total U.S. international trade in goods. Since these are not arm’s-length transactions, trade policymakers have voiced concerns that income shifting may distort international trade in goods statistics through the manipulation of transfer prices. Using country-level data on intrafirm exports and imports, we estimate a path analysis that simultaneously tests how and to what extent tax-motivated transfer pricing and real investment decisions affect intrafirm trade in goods statistics. Contrary to speculation, we do not find an economically significant relation between transfer pricing and intrafirm trade in goods statistics. In contrast, we find that tax-motivated location decisions create a 21 (20) percent or $819.7 ($927.1) million difference in mean intrafirm exports (imports) between the U.S. and a low- and high-tax country. This study provides trade policymakers with relevant information about the extent to which real investment decisions and accounting manipulations affect intrafirm trade in goods statistics and contributes to the international trade and income shifting literatures. |
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Keywords: | International taxation Income shifting Intrafirm trade in goods F40 O50 H26 |
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