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ARCH and GARCH models vs. martingale volatility of finance market returns
Authors:Joseph L. McCauley
Affiliation:Physics Department, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77204-5005, United States
Abstract:ARCH and GARCH models assume either i.i.d. or ‘white noise’ as is usual in regression analysis, while also assuming memory in a conditional mean square fluctuation with stationary increments. We will show that ARCH/GARCH is inconsistent with uncorrelated increments, violating the i.i.d. and ‘white’ assumptions, and violating finance data and the efficient market hypothesis as well.
Keywords:Nonstationary differences/increments   ARCH   GARCH   Martingales   Efficient market hypothesis   Volatility
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