中国城市人口与建成区土地面积异速生长关系分析——基于652个设市城市的实证研究

研究目的:揭示近年中国城市人口与建成区土地面积规模的发展特征。研究方法:在面板数据中运用分形理论的城市位序—规模分布法则和异速生长模型,对中国设市城市进行实证研究。研究结果:(1)以城区人口规模和建成区土地面积作为衡量城市规模的指标,其规模分布均符合位序—规模法则,且模型拟合判定系数均在0.93—0.96之间,证明拟合优度较好;(2)在剔除人口为10万的临界值以下城市后发现人口—建成区土地面积异速生长标度指数b均在0.85以上,表明中国城市处于正异速生长阶段;(3)大城市建成区土地面积过大,人口数量基本饱和,应合理供给城市建设用地,严格控制人口规模,提高城市土地利用率。研究结论:在城市化进程中,应根据人口密度的变化,推动大中小城市协调发展,促进城镇化和新农村建设协调发展。

Relation Between the Population and the Land Area of Urban Built-up Area in China: An Empirical Research of 652 Counties

The purpose of the paper is to reveal the characteristics of evolvement between the population and the land area of the built-up area in recent China. City rank-size rule and allometric growth model was employed in the study based on the panel data from 652 counties in China. The results showed that 1） considering either urban population or built-up area as the measurement, both follow the rank-scale rule and coefficient of the model is between 0.93-0.96. 2） The scale index of population-to-area is in unusual speed, which was more than 0.85 after excluding the counties that the population is less than 100 thousands. It showed that the counties in China are expanding too fast. 3） Because of the overlarge size of the counties, and the overcrowded population, the government should supply the construction land reasonably and strictly, control the population scale, and improve the utilization efficiency of urban land. It is concluded that we should promote the coordination between the medium and small counties, and promote the coordination development between the urbanization and the new rural construction.