对中国当前宏观调控的基本判断和预期

中国已进入全面通胀时期,通胀现象将在小幅振荡中持续攀升。通胀的主要根源是过度投资造成的流动性过剩,控制通胀必须在较长时期内坚持总量从紧的货币政策,必须改善和优化经济增长结构,降低各级政府投资冲动,依赖于政府职能转变,即把大部分经济职能移交给市场,由市场与政府共同分担调控责任。保证增长、控制物价,需进一步深化产权改革,刺激以农民为主体的有恒产者掀起新一轮投资热潮,并以此作为未来最主要的经济增长点。

On Basic Judgment and Prospect for China's Current Macro-economic Control

As China has entered an overall inflation stage in every aspect,inflation will continue rising in a slight intensified and unstable way. The main source that leads to the overall inflation is surplus fluidity caused by over-investment. In the long run,sustaining a tight money policy is a necessity to control inflation. So improving and optimizing directions and system of economic growth,lowering investment desires of government at all levels rely on the function changes of the government,that is transferring major parts of economic functions to market,so that responsibilities for controling inflation can be shared by both the self-management of market and the government. Ensuring economic development and controling commodity price require not only further reform of the property right law and deepening the privatization in large scale,but stimulating an investment upsurge by encouraging and supporting people with fixed property which are mainly farmers to do so,and making it as the new main economic development point in the future.