| 人口老龄化、经济增长与财政政策 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘穷志,何奇. 人口老龄化、经济增长与财政政策[J]. 经济学(季刊), 2013, 0(1): 119-134 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘穷志 何奇 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学经济与管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目“居民收入不平等与财政归宿效应:评估技术及应用”(项目批准号:70973091)和国家自然科学基金项目“收入不平等程度、再分配空间与财政分配能力研究”(项目批准号:71273199)的资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文通过建立一个拓展的交叠世代模型,探讨了人口老龄化对经济增长的影响以及实现均衡增长的财政政策。研究发现,当人口老龄化对经济增长起到促进作用时,均衡增长政策是增加财政支出规模并加大健康保障支出;反之则是减少财政支出规模并加大公共教育支出。实证检验支持了理论模型的结论,并发现人口老龄化对中国经济增长的影响正在从积极转向消极。因此,中国应当逐步降低财政支出规模,并将更多的财政资金分配到公共教育领域。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口老龄化 均衡增长 财政政策 |
Aging, Economic Growth, and Fiscal Policy |
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| Liu Qiongzhi and He Qi. Aging, Economic Growth, and Fiscal Policy[J]. China Economic Quarterly, 2013, 0(1): 119-134 |
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| Authors: | Liu Qiongzhi and He Qi |
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| Affiliation: | QIONGZHI LIU QI HE (Wuhan University) |
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| Abstract: | this paper extends the overlapping generation model to analyze the impact of aging on economic growth and implied fiscal policy to achieve the balanced growth. if the im- pact of aging on economic growth is positive, we found that the policy that achieves the bal- anced growth can be implemented by increasing fiscal and health security expenditure. on the other hand, the balanced-growth policy is to reduce fiscal expenditure while increase public education expenditure. subsequent empirical study confirms the theoretical conclusion and shows that the impact of aging on chinese economic growth is turning from positive to nega- tive. | |
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