投机资本流入、利率政策的两难问题和货币政策工具的最优搭配

本文构建理论模型分析了如何选择利率和存款准备金率工具的最优搭配,从而在防止通货膨胀和防止热钱流入之间取得最佳平衡。模型显示存款准备金率只对银行贷款起直接抑制作用,当人们通过非银行渠道融资时,可规避准备金率的限制,使其效果下降。而利率政策通过套利机制也对非银行融资起直接限制作用。而且利率政策可以避免对信贷资金分配的不对称限制,使资金分配更平衡有效,所以利率政策相对占优。但当利率吸引投机资本时,可搭配使用准备金率政策以减少利率需要提高的程度,以减少热钱流入。

Inflows of Speculative Capital,the Dilemma of Interest Rate Policy and the Optimal Combination of Monetary Policy Tools

A theoretical model is proposed to consider the policy characterized by some optimal combination of interest rate policy and bank reserve requirements to achieve the goals of preventing inflation and reducing inflows of hot money.The model shows that the effect of bank reserve requirements policy imposes direct constraint on bank lending,which can be circumvented to some extent by financing through non-bank channels.Interest rate policy,on the other hand,prevents financing through arbitrage,and results in more efficient funds allocation.The side effect of attracting speculative capital inflows,due to higher interest rate,can be countered with reserve policy.