我国上市公司财务危机预警的实证分析

本文以我国沪市的上市公司为研究对象，选择了25家财务危机公司和25家财务安全公司为样本，对样本数据分别进行了基本统计量分析、单变量分析和多变量模型分析。研究结果表明：(1)财务危机企业与财务安全企业的财务指标在基本统计量上存在很大差距；(2)单变量分析中，反映盈利能力的财务指标判断正确率较高；(3)多变量模型判断正确率较高。

The Analysis of Real Example of Financial Crisis Prewarning of Listed Company

This paper is in order to regard listed companies of shanghai stock exchange of our country as the research object.The samples were 25 financial crisis companies and 25 financial security firms, then carried on single variables analyse and more variable analyse separately to sample data ,finally compared LMP models with logit models.The result of study shows : (1)There are heavy disparities in the basic statistics amountses of financial indexes between financial crisis enterprises and safe enterprises; (2)In the single variable analyse, the financial index which reflects profit ability of enterprises has relatively high correct rate;(3)and the correct rate is relatively high in many variable models.