| Abstract: | This paper develops a model of the black or parallel market foreign exchange rate. This rate is seen to depend upon the level of the official rate, the (unobserved) equilibrium rate, the premium offered for exchange sold through the black market, and government reserve-level policies. The model is then empirically estimated for 10 countries over a period from 1957 through 1983. The results generally support the model specified by theory. Additionally, the paper provides weak-form tests concerning the efficiency of the black market. The results cannot reject the hypothesis that the current black market rate incorporates all relevant historical price information. |
