中国省域碳排放异质性趋同及其决定因素研究——基于变参数面板数据计量经济模型的实证

文章利用增长趋同分析原理，构建了碳排放异质性趋同模型，并基于中国省域面板数据，测算了省域碳排放量，采用变参数面板数据模型对各省域碳排放的趋同性及决定因素进行了实证分析，克服了常参数计量经济研究的不足。结果表明：省域碳排放不存在绝对趋同，但存在明显的异质性条件趋同；不同水平的人均地区生产总值是决定碳排放趋同的重要因素，而人口规模、产业结构对碳排放趋同的影响因各地区而有差异性。中国整体碳减排政策的制定，必须充分考虑各个省域碳排放趋同的异质性特征，省域碳减排的政策和措施也须充分考虑其经济发展水平、产业结构和人口等决定因素的差异性；基于长期有效的政策考虑，继续执行控制人口规模的计划生育政策对各省域的碳排放控制将发挥不可忽视的作用。

Study on Heterogeneous Convergence and Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions:Based on Positive Study of Varying Parameter Panel Data Model

Based on the convergence analysis theory of economic growth, carbon emissions convergence model is constructed. Based on the China’s provincial carbon emissions panel data, the paper measures and calculates the emission amount in different provinces or regions; heterogeneous convergence of each provincial carbon emissions and their determinant factors are analyzed empirically based on the panel data model with variying parameters which can overcome the disadvantages of measuring econometric research by constant parameter. The results show that for carbon dioxide emissions, there is no absolute convergence but an obviously conditional heterogeneous convergence for the provincial carbon emissions. Different levels of per capita GDP are an important factor to determine carbon emissions convergence of each province or region, and the impact of population scale together with the industrial structure on carbon emissions convergence is different due to regional disparity. The formulation of entire carbon emission reduction policy of Chinese government must fully consider the heterogeneity of carbon emissions convergence differences of various provinces. The policies and measures to reduce the provincial emission should be fully aware of determinant factors such as the regional economic development level, industrial structure and population diversity. Based on the considerations of long-term effective policy, the family planning policy on controlling the population size should be executed continuously and it will exert positive effect on carbon emissions control of different provinces and regions.