中国可再生能源消费、经济增长与碳排放的动态关系

通过协整检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解,对1980—2009年中国的可再生能源消费、碳排放量与经济增长之间的动态关系、冲击效应和贡献度进行了分析。研究结果显示:可再生能源消费、经济增长与碳排放之间存在长期、稳定的协整关系;经济增长受其他变量的冲击均表现为正效应;可再生能源消费的冲击对碳排放的影响微弱,而经济增长的冲击影响较强而持续,且前期波动剧烈但后期平稳;受碳排放的影响,可再生能源消费的累积冲击效应为负,而且正负冲击效应交替出现。

Dynamic Relationship among Consumption of Renewable Energy,Economic Growth and Carbon Emission in China

Through coqntegration test,pulse response analysis and variance decomposition,this paper empirically studies the dynamic relation- ship among consumption of renewable energy,economic growth and carbon emission in China during 1980-2009 and pulse effects and contribu- tion degrees of each other. The result shows as follows： there exists the long-term stable co-integration relationship among them; economic growth has a positive effect on other variables; renewable energy consumption has a drastic influence on economic growth in short term, but its long term impact is small;the impact of economic growth on renewable energy consumption is strong and sustained, and is volatile firstly and steady latter,the effect of carbon emission on renewable energy consumption is both negative and positive.