Non-renewable resources: A review of long-term projections

This article reviews available estimates of long-term future demand for the major mineral resources, together with estimates of the total world endowment of each. The confrontation of these two sets of estimates is not to be viewed as an exercise in doomsday forecasting. Rather, it yields a set of indices of the lead times available for the exploration of solutions to the problems of the demand for, and the supply of, resources. It is not obvious that market forces will be able to cope with shortages swiftly and flexibly. There is thus a need for a continuing evaluation of the long-run resource implications of world economic expansion.