银行危机持续时间的影响因素研究

文章以l980—2012年间的85次银行危机为样本，以经济增长恢复到危机前水平的所需时间为银行危机持续期的度量标准，综合考虑危机前经济体的经常账户、政府债务、资产价格变化情况以及危机中的财政政策、货币政策实施情况，采用简单线性回归模型对银行危机持续时间的影响因素进行了分析。研究发现，危机前的股票价格指数增长越快，银行危机的持续期越长，危机中货币供应的增长会使银行危机的持续期加长，危机中扩张性的财政政策以及危机中较快的全球经济增长则能在一定程度上缩短银行危机的持续期。

Determinants of the Duration of Banking Crisis

For the analysis of the duration of the banking crisis, this paper takes the 85 banking crisis that happened in 1980-2012 as the samples, using the time that needed for the economic growth to return to the pre-crisis level as the duration of the banking crisis. It comprehensively considers current account balance, government debt, asset price changes before the crisis, and the implementation of the financial and monetary policies in the crisis. The model it uses is the simple linear regression model The results show that the faster the growth of the stock price index before the crisis is, the longer the duration of banking crises is. The growth of money supply in the crisis will make the duration of banking crisis become longer. Expansionary fiscal policy and the faster global economic growth in the crisis can shorten the duration of banking crisis to some extent.