基于会计和治理信息的财务困境预测模型研究

本文以2005年上半年沪深两市中首次被ST的52家公司和52家非ST公司为研究对象，同时利用这些上市公司的会计信息和公司治理信息来构建财务困境预测模型。研究结果表明：（1）公司治理特征对公司陷入财务困境具有显著影响；（2）公司治理信息不能为财务信息所覆盖。一方面，说明公司治理结构对公司的财务安全具有重要影响，另一方面也说明今后在研究和构建财务困境预测模型时，不仅要考虑会计信息，还应考虑公司治理信息等，以构建出更为有效的预测模型。

Accounting Dilemma Forecast Model Based on Accounting and Governance Information

This paper took 52 ST companies and 52 normal companies listed in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets to build an accounting dilemma forecast model based on their accounting and governance information. Studies reveal that, firstly, poor corporate governance attributes to its accounting dilemma. Secondly, governance information of a company can not be veiled by its accounting information. On one hand, governance structure of a company imposes a marked impact on its accounting security. On the other hand, it should be borne in mind that, to build a more efficient model to forecast corporate accounting dilemma, accounting as well as governance information must be taken into account.