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Political risk forecasting
Authors:Jeffrey D Simon
Abstract:There is a lull permeating the political risk industry after an initial surge of interest in the late 1970s. This article explores the business world's possible scepticism with the concepts, theories and methods of political risk analysis, examines the relative strengths and weaknesses of approaches to political risk forecasting, and suggests ways in which companies can themselves take control of the risk assessment process. It is concluded that no single method is satisfactory, and that data from both subjective and objective sources need to be integrated for political risk assessment to become more effective.
Keywords:forecasting  political risk  social science methods
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