The notion of technological limits: An aid to technological forecasting

One approach to technological forecasting involves trend extrapolation. The trends extrapolated are usually performance or structural parameters of artefacts. Forecasters are able to extrapolate better if they can visualize limits beyond which these trends cannot proceed. If the capabilities of artefacts fall short of their ultimate constraints much scope exists for technological development. If these capabilities lie near their limits, less potential exists. This article explores the possibility of creating a standard chart of technological limits as an aid to technological forecasters. A taxonomy of limits is suggested based on an existing taxonomy of technological trends. The article discusses some of these limits and points out which are well documented and which require further research.