A fuzzy multiple criteria comparison of technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development |
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| Authors: | An-Chin Cheng [Author Vitae] Chung-Jen Chen [Author Vitae] Chia-Yon Chen [Author Vitae] |
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| Affiliation: | a Graduate Institute of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, 1, Ta-Hsueh Road, Tainan, Taiwan, R.O.C.
b Graduate Institute of Business Administration, National Cheng Kung University, 1, Ta-Hsueh Road, Tainan, Taiwan, R.O.C. |
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| Abstract: | New materials have been recognized as key drivers for corporate profitability and growth in today's fast changing environments. To predict correctly the development of the new materials becomes a critical issue. However, little has been done in discussing the selection of technology forecasting methods for the new materials development. Accordingly, this study adopted the fuzzy AHP method to obtain professional's opinions on this issue. The efforts result in seven evaluation criteria with one, the “data validity” having the highest weight, followed by “method adaptability” and “technology predictability”. Delphi method and case study method are the two most applicable technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development. |
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| Keywords: | Fuzzy AHP Technology forecasting New materials development |
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