基于广义可加模型的跨境人民币流动影响因素实证分析

利用广义可加模型对影响跨境人民币流动的因素进行理论和实证分析,发现贸易进出口总额对跨境人民币流动的线性作用与非线性作用不一样.随着一国贸易进出口总额的增加,对跨境人民币流动的非线性影响呈现由正向转为负向的趋势；人民币的有效汇率对于会造成跨境人民币流动水平小幅波动；资本市场的发展水平对于跨境人民币流动的影响是水平线性的.最后,本文比较了广义可加模型与多元线性回归模型、协整模型的差异,体现了广义可加模型用于经济领域研究的优势.

Empirical Analysis on Factors Which Influence Cross-border Renminbi Flows Based on the Generalized Additive Model

Using the generalized additive model, the article analyzes the factors affecting the cross-border Renmin- bi flows, and finds that the liner and non-linear effect of trade to the cross-border Renminbi flows are different.The non-linear effect of imports and exports on cross-border Renminbi flows transfers from positive to negative with the increasing of trade volume ; the effect of real effective exchange rate of RMB can give rise to slightly cross-border Renminbi flows fluctuating; the effect of development of capital market to cross-border Renminbi flows is linear.At last, the article compares the generalized additive model with the multiple linear regression model and the cointergration model, and gives some evidence that the generalized additive model have edge on economic research.