老龄化中国人口红利实现的可能性与途径探讨

本文首先简要回顾了有关老龄化社会的人口红利效应的相关研究。近而，利用抽样人口数据，本文预测了未来75年我国人口规模与结构的变化趋势，指出在未来的大部分年份里，从第一人口红利的角度看，人口结构很可能将对中国经济增长起负面作用；而解决未来养老问题并实现第二人口红利的关键是：从当前开始即在充分就业的前提下实现持续的、有效的资本积累。一个重要的、可行的资本积累方式就是建立积累制的养老金计划。

The Possibility and Approach to Achieve Demographic Dividend in Aging China

This study reviews the studies on demographic dividend in aging society. Then, based on the sampling demographic data, this study predicts the changing tendency of China’s demographic scale and structure, which shows that in the view of the first demographic dividend, demographic structure will have negative effects on China’s economic growth in most future years. Thus, this study points out that establishing the accumulated pension plan is one of the important and feasible ways for capital accumulating, which is key to solve the social problems of the future aging society and to achieve the second demographic dividend in China. At the same time, the government’s providing the relevant laws and policies in favor of improving the efficiency of the pension plan is the prerequisite to settle the China’s aging problems.