我国南北过渡带水面蒸发的时空变化及趋势预测

为研究中国南北过渡带水面蒸发的时空变化及对其趋势进行预测,利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall(M-K)趋势检验法、灰色关联分析法和R/S分析法对中国气象数据网南北过渡带43个气象站1980—2017年的水面蒸发量、平均气温、相对湿度、平均风速、日照时数等的日数据进行分析。结果表明:从时间上看,研究期内的南北过渡带年平均水面蒸发量呈较显著上升趋势,气候倾向率为19.3mm/(10a)且在1994年前后发生了突变,水面蒸发量由减小趋势转为上升趋势,年代平均水面蒸发量也逐步增加,季节上升趋势夏季较显著而春季、冬季、秋季不显著;从空间上看,气候倾向率在研究区内中部和东北部较低,其他地区较高;水面蒸发量上升的主要原因为平均气温的升高。在未来一段时间内,南北过渡带水面蒸发量将继续上升。

Spatiotemporal changes and trend prediction of water surface evaporation in the north-south transitional zone of China

With increasingly prominent global environmental problems,climate change research,including water surface evaporation,has become one of the current international scientific research hotspots and has received extensive attention from the international community.North south transition zone is a sensitive area in response to global climate change,as well as the main water source for the mid line of the South to North Water Diversion and a key area for the western development.However,few researches focus on the water surface evaporation of the entire north south transition zone.