TECHNOLOGICAL EPOCHS AND BRITISH INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, 1700–1992

This paper presents results on the persistence of British industrial production using the Cochrane (1988) measure, based upon the spectral density at zero frequency, and an extended version of the Crafts-Harley (1992) data set. Utilising results on the timing of macroeconomic epochs, consideration is given to the effects of structural breaks on measures of persistence. In addition the variance composition of production is analysed via consideration of the cycle period. The results show high persistence during the Industrial Revolution and lower levels of persistence experienced during the twentieth century. The problems of ignoring structural breaks when claculating measures of persistence are highlighted and used to explain the results of some previous studies.