外生冲击对中国经济增长周期的影响

本文分析了外生冲击对中国经济增长及其周期的影响,指出整体性、持久性的冲击将对经济产生较大影响;暂时性的外生冲击对中国经济有影响,但不会太大;中国经济的长期运行趋势不会轻易改变。同时提出了建立冲击预警机制和健全危机管理体系、增强经济系统抵御和化解冲击能力等一系列应对外生冲击,确保中国经济稳定运行的策略建议。

The Innuence on China''''s Economic Growth Cycle by External Impact

This article analyzes influences on the growth and cycle of China's economy exerted by the external impact, indicates that integrate, durable impact will exert significant influence on the economy. Temporary external impact will affect economy but with less power. The long term trend of China's economy will not change easily. At the same time, in order to deal with the external impact and ensure China's economic stable development, this article brings forward a series of strategic advices, including setting up early warning mechanism, optimizing the crisis management system, enhancing the economic system's capability of defensing and resolving external impact.