我国纺织品出口对经济增长贡献的实证研究

出口贸易是影响经济增长的重要因素。本文采用1980-2004年的数据,描述了我国纺织品出口的特点,并借助协整模型实证研究了纺织品出口对经济增长的影响,指出二者之间存在长期的动态关系。通过定量分析,发现纺织品出口对经济增长的直接拉动度和贡献率都较低,这是因为我国纺织服装行业一方面受宏观环境影响,另一方面自身竞争优势不足。本文经过研究,形成了对我国纺织品出口与经济增长之间关系直观而清晰的认识,并为无配额时代我国纺织业发展的后续研究提供了参考。

On the Contribution of China's Textiles and Clothing Exporting Commerce to Economic Growth

Export is an important factor of economic growth.Base on the data from 1980-2004,this paper describes the characteristics of China's textiles and clothing export and studies the effect of export on the economic growth empirically by using the co-integration theory,pointing that there is a long and dynamic relationship between the two aspects.The quantitative analysis shows that both direct pull degree and contribution rate are low.Besides macro-environment,the poor competitive advantage of textiles and clothing industry also plays an important role.This paper can bring an intuitionistic and clear knowledge about the contribution of China's textiles and clothing export to economic growth and will supply references to the further study on the development of China's textiles and clothing industry in the quota-free era.