我国上市公司可持续发展的计量模型与实证分析

随着我国对稳定发展资本市场的日益重视 ,如何客观评价上市公司自身的竞争优势、长期绩效和成长能力 ,从而科学认识其持续发展的内在规律已成为一个亟待研究和解决的重要问题。为此 ,本文构建出一个新颖的上市公司可持续发展计量模型 ,并首次运用屏面数据计量方法进行实证研究 ,通过使用数理统计工具 ,如Mahalanobis广义距离、计算机集约法和刀切法 ,深入剖析我国上市公司长期绩效的形成机制 ,发现动态累积效益模型能深刻揭示出各类可持续发展指标之间错综复杂的内在关系、真实体现上市公司可持续发展的本质特征并客观评价上市公司的综合素质。

The Sustainable Development of China's Listed Firms: Econometric Model and Empirical Evidence

Sustainable development of listed firms builds a solid foundation for the sustainability of securities market. As China's central government pays more and more attention to the development of securities market, it is very important to measure the competitive edge, long-term performance and growth prospects of the listed firms. This paper uses a novel approach in developing such an econometric model. It also uses, for the first time, panel data econometric methods in conducting empirical investigations on China's listed firms. By using state-of-the-art statistical methodologies including Mahalanobis distance, computer intensive method and Jackknife, the paper explores the determinants of long-term performance of listed firms and finds that a dynamic cumulative performance model can successfully capture the intriguing relationship among various proxies for sustainability, disclose the intrinsic characteristics of sustainable firms, and predict the future performance for most of the listed companies.