新增长战略背景下对经济发展趋势和动力的研究——以贵州省为例

本文使用格兰杰因果检验、向量自回归模型等方法筛选出贵州省经济增长的先行因素,并用主成分分析法构建贵州省宏观经济先行指数,以期对未来贵州省经济发展走势和周期做出判断.主要结论有两个：一是本文构建的先行指数解释力较强、预测比较精确;二是工业生产者出厂价格指数、各项存款余额同比增速是贵州省经济增长走势的先行指标,对宏观经济的驱动力较强,但是两者受外部环境和货币政策影响较大,贵州省未来发展面临不确定因素.

Study on Economic Development Trend and Dynamic Under New Growth Strategy

In this paper, we use the Granger causality test, vector autoregressive model method to filter out the first factor of economic growth in Guizhou Province, and use the principal component analysis method to build the first factor of the macro economy in Guizhou province, in order to make judgments about the future trend and cycle of eco- nomic development. The main conclusions are two： the first index in our paper interpret and predict macro economy well; the ex-factory price index of industrial producers and the deposit balance year-on-year growth are leading indi- cators and the drive force/of economic growth in Guizhou province, but both are influenced by the external environ- ment and the monetary policy, future economic growth faces uncertainty,