模糊网络层次分析法在水利工程招标风险评价中的应用

以模糊数学为基础,建立基于模糊网络层次分析法的招标风险评价模型。首先通过网络层次分析法确定各项因素的权重,再结合模糊综合评价法进行分析比较,最终确定最优决策方案。将该模型应用于某水库工程的招标风险评价及决策中,以投标方为主动变量,其他因素为被动变量,确定各因素的权重。分别对3个方案进行风险评估,再比较选出最优方案。结果表明:该模型可对水利工程招标风险因素进行识别和排序,进而做出风险评价,为业主控制招标风险提供合理的决策方案,减少不必要的损失。

Application offuzzy analytic network process in bidding risk evaluation of water conservancy projects

The model for risk evaluation combined with the analytic network process is established based on the fuzzy mathematics. Firstly, the weights of various factors are determined by using the analytic network process, then comparative analysis is performed by using the fuzzy analytic network process(FANP), finally the optimum decision-making scheme is obtained. The FANP model is applied in the risk evaluation and decision of bidding of a reservoir. By taking the bidding part as the active variable and the others as the passive variables, their weights are determined, the risks of three schemes are evaluated, and the optimum scheme is comparatively obtained. The results show that the proposed model can identify and sort the risk factors of bidding of water conservancy projects and evaluate the risks comprehensively, and it can provide a reasonable control decision for owners so as to control the risks of bidding and reduce unnecessary losses.