西北五省水资源消耗对经济增长的影响

从水资源消耗量和消耗结构两个方面考虑水资源对经济增长的影响,首先利用改进的C-D生产函数,结合Romer阻尼分析模型,从三次产业角度测算西北五省水资源对经济增长的阻尼大小;并运用结构偏差系数对西北五省水资源消耗结构和产业结构的动态变化进行测算。从水资源消耗量的测算看,西北五省三次产业的资本和技术的产出弹性均大于劳动和水资源的产出弹性,反映西北地区经济的发展对资本和技术的依赖性更强,且第二产业存在水资源增长阻尼的地区最多,其发展对水资源依赖较大;从水资源消耗结构看,各地区水资源在第二和第三产业之间的配置基本达到最优效率的状态,但在第一和第二产业以及第一和第三产业之间配置不均,水资源消耗结构变动滞后于产业结构变动,地区水资源消耗结构与产业结构不协调现象严重。基于研究结论,提出各地区需提高用水效率,减少用水量;改善用水结构,促进水资源向第二、第三产业流动等政策建议。

Effect of consumption of water resources on economic growth of five provinces in Northwest China

The effect of consumption of water resources on economic growth is considered from the aspects of water consumption and structure. The magnitude of damping of water resources on the economic growth of five provinces in Northwest China is measured by using the improved C-D production function and the Romer damping analysis model from the aspect of the third industry, and the coefficient of structural deviation is used to measure the dynamic changes of consumption structure of water resources and industrial structure. From the consumption of water resources, the output elasticity of capital and technology of the third industry of five provinces in Northwest China is greater than that of labor and water resources, indicating that the economic development in the northwestern areas is strongly dependent on the capital and technology. And there are more areas with growth damping for the second industry, which means the second industry is more dependent on water resources. From the perspective of structure of water consumption, the allocation of water resources basically reaches the optimal efficiency between the second and third industries, but the distribution between the first and second and that between the first and third industries are uneven. The structural changes in water consumption lags behind those in industrial structure, and the consumption structure of water resources and industrial structure are not coordinated. Based on these results, some policy proposals are put forward as follows: increase of water use efficiency in various areas, decrease of water consumption, improvement of water use structure, and promotion of water resources towards the second and third industries.