| 混凝土坝强震观测资料的ARX模型分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑东健,罗德河,仇建春.混凝土坝强震观测资料的ARX模型分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2018,38(5):27-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑东健 罗德河 仇建春 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;河海大学水利水电学院;珠江水利科学研究院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(51579085,51739003)；“十三五”国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401601) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对目前强震观测资料分析存在结构安全情况判估受计算模型和参数影响大的问题,通过建立强震资料时变参数自回归递推ARX模型,利用ARX模型参数反映结构系统动力特性变化的特点,提出了直接利用强震资料快速评估混凝土坝震后结构状态的方法,并采用遗忘因子提高模型效率。实例仿真结果表明,ARX模型时变参数能反映混凝土坝结构状态的变化,所提出的评价方法是有效、可行的,可作为DL/T 5416—2009《水工建筑物强震动安全监测技术规范》中方法的补充。
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| 关 键 词： | 混凝土坝 强震 观测资料 ARX模型 时变参数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/6/6 0:00:00 |
ARX model analysis of monitoring data for concrete dams under strong earthquake |
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| ZHENG Dongjian,LUO Dehe and QIU Jianchun.ARX model analysis of monitoring data for concrete dams under strong earthquake[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2018,38(5):27-31. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Dongjian LUO Dehe and QIU Jianchun |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Guangzhou 510611, China and State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | At present, the analysis of structure safety status of concrete dams using the monitoring data under strong earthquake is greatly influenced by calculation models and parameters. Based on the time series of the monitoring data under strong earthquake, the time-varying autoregressive recursive ARX model is established. The post-earthquake rapid evaluation method of concrete dams is then proposed based on the property that the ARX model parameters can reflect the dynamic variation of the structure system, and the efficiency of the model is improved by using the self-regulated forgetting factor. The simulation results for an example show that the time-varying parameters of ARX model can reflect the structure state variation of concrete dams, indicating that the proposed method is effective and feasibility and it can be a supplementary method to the Technical Specification of Strong Motion Monitoring for Seismic Safety of Hydraulic Structures(DL/T 5416-2009). |
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| Keywords: | concrete dams strong earthquake monitoring data autoregressive exogenous model(ARX model) time-varying parameter |
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