基于PVAR模型和VAR模型的工业用水与工业经济增长关系研究

量化工业用水与工业经济增长之间的互动关系,对工业节水具有重要意义。以1998—2015年为考察期,采用PVAR模型和VAR模型分别研究我国东部地区整体以及各省份工业用水与工业经济增长的互动关系。PVAR模型结果表明:工业用水与工业经济增长存在长期协整关系,工业用水的滞后一期对工业经济增长有显著的正向影响,工业用水对工业经济增长扰动的响应经历先上升后下降的倒"U"过程,而水资源却逐渐制约工业经济增长,工业用水的波动主要来自自身且缓慢下降,工业经济增长受到工业用水的影响逐渐加强。VAR模型结果表明:上海市和福建省不能建立VAR模型,剩下的省份所建立的VAR模型、脉冲响应分析以及预测方差分解结果都存在较大的差异性,说明分省研究的必要性。需要将PVAR模型与VAR模型相结合,因地制宜制定具有差别化、针对性的水资源政策以提高工业用水效率,形成水资源利用与工业经济增长的良性循环。

Relation between industrial water use and economic growth based on PVAR model and VAR model

Quantifying the relation between industrial water use and economic growth is of great significance to industrial water saving. Taking the period from 1998 to 2015 as the research one, the PVAR model and VAR model are employed to study the relation between industrial water use and economic growth of the whole region and various provinces and cities in the east areas of China. The results of PVAR model show that there is a long-term coordinated relation between industrial water use and economic growth. One-stage lagging of the industrial water use has great positive effect on the industrial economic growth. The response of industrial water use to disturbance of industrial economic growth exhibits an inverse U process, that is, it first increases and then decreases. The water resources gradually restrict the industrial economic growth. The fluctuation in the industrial water use is mainly resulted from itself and slowly decreases. The effect of industrial water use on the industrial economic growth is gradually strengthened. The results of VAR model indicate that the VAR model cannot be established in Shanghai City and Fujian Province, and the results of VAR model, pulse response analysis and variance decomposition in the other provinces and cities are greatly different, indicating the necessity of researches of VAR model for various provinces and cities. Therefore, the PVAR model and VAR model should be combined, and different and specific policies of water resources should be formulated according to the local situations so as to form the beneficial cycle between the utilization of water resources and industrial economic growth.