基于判别分析的内部控制重大缺陷预测研究

公司破产风险、财务舞弊事件通常与内部控制重大缺陷存在密切关系,研究内部控制重大缺陷判别方式具有重要意义和价值。本文以深交所2007—2008年138家内部控制重大缺陷公司与138家非重大缺陷公司为样本,采用逐步判别分析法构建内部控制重大缺陷判别模型,帮助监管方、外部投资者等更好地预测内部控制重大缺陷。研究表明,相比非重大缺陷公司,内部控制重大缺陷公司上市年限较长、规模较小、外部审计师变更更加频繁,盈利能力和成长性较差,但流动性、营运能力指标的检验结果是混合性的。交互验证结果表明,模型预测准确率达到70%以上。

Major Defect Prediction of Internal Control Based on Discriminant Analysis

Bankruptcy risk and financial fraud of firms are usually closely related to material weaknesses of internal control,so it’s very important and valuable to examine discriminant method of material weaknesses of internal control.This paper proposes a stepwise discriminant analysis model to predict material weaknesses in a firm’s internal control system using 2007-2008 Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies ’data.Results of t-test show that firms that disclosed material weaknesses were older,smaller,more often changed their auditors,and had lower profitability and growth measures than the non-material weakness control firms.Results of several liquidity and operational capacity measures are mixed.Cross-validation results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is higher than 70%.