负面情绪累积效应下住房租赁市场危机演化与引导

住房租赁经营者的违规无序经营会使租户产生负面情绪累积效应，极易导致市场危机不断演化升级，给行业发展带来巨大冲击。在传染病动力模型和演化博弈理论基础上，构建SEIR（易感者、感染者、传播者和康复者）演化博弈模型，分析地方政府与住房租赁经营者行为策略的博弈关系及双方不同策略选择下租户情绪感知的演化路径，讨论住房租赁市场博弈系统达到稳定状态的规律，为政府行业治理提供决策支持。地方政府和租赁经营者对行业隐性损益的感知对其行为策略具有重要影响，违规经营的超额收益易使经营者产生短视行为。地方政府在住房租赁市场危机中起到重要的控制、引导和调节作用，应兼顾短期财政效益和行业长期发展，通过建立规范的行业制度、经济惩罚、政策性优惠制度等方式约束和激励经营者的行为，并提高经营者社会责任意识。另外，修复租户负面情感认知对阻止市场危机爆发和演化具有重要意义。地方政府和经营者应以积极的态度弥补租户损失，引导正面情绪，实现对市场危机的良性控制和有效预防。

The Crisis Evolution and Guidance of Housing Rental Market under the Cumulative Effect of Negative Emotions

The illegal and disorderly operation of the housing rental operators will cause the cumulative effect of negative emotions of tenants, which easily leads to the market crisis and bring a huge impact on the industry. The SEIR（susceptible，exposed，infectious，recovered） evolutionary game model is constructed to analyze the game relationship between the behavior strategies of local governments and housing rental operators, and the evolution path of tenants'' emotional perception under different strategy choices of both sides. The rule that the game system of the housing rental market reaches the stable state is discussed, which is helpful to provide decision support for government industry governance. The perception of local governments and leaseholders on the industry’s hidden profits and losses has an important impact on their behavioral strategies. The excess income from illegal operations is easy to cause operators to have short-sighted behavior. The local government plays an important role in controlling, guiding and regulating the housing rental market crisis. It should take into account the short-term financial benefits and the long-term development of the industry. Repairing tenants’ negative emotional cognition is of great significance to prevent the outbreak and evolution of market crises. Local governments and operators should take positive attitude to make up for tenants'' losses, guide positive emotions, and achieve benign control and effective prevention of market crises.