基于网络关注度的旅游景区客流量预警:研究框架与实证分析——以国家游泳中心水立方为例

旅游景区客流量受多种因素的影响,利用传统信息收集的手段,从众多影响因素中捕捉客流量预警前兆指标十分困难。借助搜索指数,挖掘景区客流量预警的先兆指标,构建基于网络关注度的旅游景区客流量预警研究框架,并以奥运场馆国家游泳中心水立方为例,运用格兰杰因果关系理论及VAR模型,检验网络关注度与水立方客流量的相关性,对水立方客流量进行预测预警。研究结果表明:网络关注度与客流量之间存在双向的Granger因果关系,可以将水立方网络关注度作为客流量预警的先兆指标;预测期间内客流量的警度值在-0.49~-0.27之间,水立方客流量预警等级为客流量低值蓝色预警。

Scenic Spot Forewarning of Tourism Flow Volume Based on Degree of Consumer Attention of Travel Network：Research Framework and Empirical Analysis

This paper attempts to regard degree of consumer attention as an aura indicator of tourist flow volume in early warning system,and establish a research framework of tourist flow volume forewarning.To take the case of Water Cube as instance,we use the dates of daily tourist flow volume and Baidu index from Aug.1,2010 to Dec.31,2011,and establish VAR model using non-structural method and Granger causality analysis method,and analyze the relationship between degree of consumer attention and tourist flow volume.The results show that：there is a two-way Granger causality between degree of consumer attention and tourist flow volume.The network attention of Water Cube may be as a harbinger of early warning indicators;The forecasting values of tourism flow volume are between-0.49and-0.27,indicating that the rate of tourism flow volume of Water Cube is warning blue level which is below the guaranteed tourism flow volume.