我国国债的财富效应探析——1985~2002年间我国国债规模对消费需求影响的实证研究

目前国内对国债效应的研究,集中于国债对投资的影响,较少论及国债对居民消费的影响。然而,国债对消费的影响同样重要。居民可能将国债作为金融财富,也可能认为国债对应着未来的税收。国债对消费的影响,取决于国债在居民的预算约束中是作为财富还是作为预期的未来税收而存在。若居民更多地将国债作为一种金融财富而不是未来税收,则国债促进消费增长并带动经济增长;反之,则形成“李嘉图等价效应”所描述的金融挤出效应。通过对1985~2002年的数据进行回归,作者发现我国国债呈现出较强的财富效应。但是,这一财富效应却是与国债存量相关的。若公众的信心发生变化,消费需求将迅速下降。这就要求国债政策的淡出只能是渐进的,以避免对居民消费造成较大的冲击。

The Wealth Effect of National Debt in China

This paper analyzes the effects of national debt on the consumption demand from 1985 to 2002. At present, the research of national debt in China focuses on the effect on investment and neglects the effect on the consumption. However, the effect on consumption is also important. The effect of debt depends on whether people consider the debt as wealth or as the expected tax. If the consumers regard the debt as wealth, the national debt will be in favor of the economic growth, otherwise, there will be “Ricardian Equivalence Theorem”. By regression, the authors find out the remarkable wealth effect of the national debt in China. The wealth effect has a relationship to the stock of national debt. If the public belief changes, the consumption will be descend. So the change of the fiscal policy pattern should be slow to void the decline of consumption.